birdsoup

Last week prior to my regularly scheduled BirdWalk I predicted that between 15 and 18 people would attend my walk. Actually, 21 people participated, a few more than I had estimated.

This Saturday I am leading another BirdWalk, this week to look for migrating hawks. For fun, I decided to make second attempt and try to forecast the number of people who will join the hawk watch.

I have to consider a couple of variables that might impact the turn-out this coming Saturday. First, this Saturday there is a religious holiday. That could reduce attendance. On the other hand we are not starting until 10:00 a.m., which would appeal to late sleepers. But we are traveling a little farther than normal (Mt. Kisco) which could deter some people.

Finally after hours of intense study and carefully considering all the variables, I arrived at a prediction.

I believe that 10 people (plus/minus 2) will join the hawk watch.

Tune in next week to see how close I came.